In a surprising twist in California's political landscape, former Fox News host Steve Hilton has emerged as the frontrunner in the state's 2026 gubernatorial primary race. According to a recent Emerson College poll conducted on February 13 and 14 among 1,000 likely voters, Hilton has garnered 17 percent support, placing him ahead of the pack in a diverse and crowded field.
The poll indicates a potential shake-up in California's typically Democratic-leaning politics, as Republican candidates appear to be gaining traction among voters. Former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is trailing Hilton with a close 14 percent, tying for second place with Democratic U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell. The Democratic field shows former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter at 10 percent and billionaire Tom Steyer at 9 percent, with a significant 21 percent of voters still undecided.
Hilton, a British-born political commentator and former strategist for UK Prime Minister David Cameron, has seen a five-point jump since December, signaling a growing momentum for his campaign. His platform focuses on affordability issues, including housing and homelessness, and he has been vocally critical of what he describes as the state's single-party Democratic dominance.
The Emerson College poll also highlights Hilton's narrow lead among Republican respondents, where he edges out Bianco with 38 percent to Bianco's 37 percent. Additionally, Hilton leads among independent voters, capturing 22 percent of that demographic.
On the Democratic side, no candidate has secured a dominant position. Swalwell leads with 24 percent among party respondents, followed by Porter at 17 percent and Steyer at 15 percent. The fragmented Democratic vote, combined with a large pool of undecided independents, could have significant implications for the general election outcome, given California's "jungle primary" system.
Under this system, all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, appear on a single primary ballot, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general election. This could result in a same-party matchup in November if one party's voters consolidate while the other's are split.
The Democratic field includes notable figures such as Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, and Antonio Villaraigosa, yet none have surpassed 21 percent in recent polls. This division has allowed Republicans like Hilton and Bianco to gain ground despite the Democratic Party's voter registration advantage in the state.
As the primary scheduled for June 2, 2026, approaches, candidates are ramping up their campaigns. Hilton has been actively engaging with voters, promising to champion the agricultural industry and proposing tax cuts as a counter to Democratic policies.
RealClearPolling's aggregated data currently shows Hilton and Bianco tied at 15.5 percent each, with Swalwell at 12.5 percent. Other surveys, including one from the Becerra campaign, corroborate the two Republicans' leading positions.
The race for California's governorship is heating up, and with the primary months away, the political landscape is ripe for further shifts and surprises. As voters continue to weigh their options, the candidates will be working tirelessly to secure their place on the ballot and ultimately in the governor's mansion.
