Forecasters are closely tracking two tropical systems, Tropical Depression Norbert and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, as they move across the Eastern Pacific. While neither system is expected to make a direct landfall on Hawaii, officials warn residents and mariners about the potential for dangerous rain, wind, and surf conditions in the general vicinity of the islands later this week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported on Tuesday that both depressions were weakening.
"All reliable forecast models have the storm dissipating before it ever comes close to being in the vicinity of Hawaii" Forecasters, Fox Weather
Tropical Depression Norbert, which had previously weakened from a tropical storm, was located approximately 1,290 miles east of Hilo on Sunday. At that time, it carried maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, moving west-northwest. By Tuesday, its maximum sustained winds had fallen to approximately 35 mph, signifying its downgrade to a tropical depression. Forecasters anticipate Norbert will further degrade into a remnant area of low pressure before fully dissipating. Despite this weakening trend, the lingering tropical moisture from Norbert could reach Hawaii between Thursday and Friday. This moisture has the potential to produce widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated areas possibly receiving between 2 and 3 inches. An increase in easterly winds and surf is also anticipated along northeast-facing shores, raising concerns for marine conditions.
Farther east, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E formed on Sunday, roughly 680 miles southwest of the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California peninsula. On Tuesday, the NHC reported the depression was centered near latitude 16.1 north and longitude 122.6 west, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and moving west at approximately 10 mph. Initial predictions suggested this system might strengthen into Tropical Storm Odalys by early Monday. However, dry air disrupted its thunderstorms, preventing it from achieving the 39 mph sustained wind speed required for tropical-storm status. Forecast models now indicate that Fifteen-E is also expected to weaken as it continues westward over the open Pacific, ultimately becoming a remnant low and dissipating well before approaching Hawaii. "All reliable forecast models have the storm dissipating before it ever comes close to being in the vicinity of Hawaii," forecasters stated, as reported by Fox Weather.
As of Tuesday, no coastal watches or warnings were in effect for either depression. Officials emphasize that while neither system currently poses a direct landfall threat, tropical forecasts can change rapidly as storms encounter new atmospheric conditions. The presence of dry air and other hostile environmental conditions has been a significant factor in preventing persistent thunderstorms from organizing around the centers of both systems, thereby reducing their likelihood of substantial strengthening.
These developments occur during an unusually active Eastern Pacific hurricane season. The basin has already produced 16 named storms, including three that intensified into major hurricanes. This exceeds the average Eastern Pacific season, which typically generates approximately 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. With the official hurricane season running through November 30, there remains additional time for dangerous systems to develop. Forecasters are also monitoring another disturbance well offshore from southwestern Mexico, though it currently has a low probability of developing into a significant system within the next seven days.
Hawaiian residents are currently experiencing a reprieve following several tropical systems that impacted the islands during the 2026 season. Despite the immediate danger appearing limited from these two current depressions, officials consistently advise residents to monitor trusted forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and local authorities. Remaining prepared for sudden changes in rainfall, surf, or wind conditions is crucial, as weakening tropical systems can still generate hazardous conditions far from their centers. The National Hurricane Center will continue to track both depressions until they fully dissipate.
