Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton was reportedly captured on leaked audio expressing concerns that President Donald Trump's recent midterm convention negatively impacted his polling numbers and those of other Republican candidates. The comments, reportedly made last Thursday at a private fundraiser near Capitol Hill, reveal an apparent divergence from Paxton's public stance of strong alliance with President Trump.
"So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.”" Ken Paxton, Texas Republican Senate Candidate
According to reports on the recording, which was reportedly provided to The New York Times by an attendee opposing Paxton's candidacy, Paxton responded to a question about a "drag" on numbers by specifically referencing the Republican midterm convention. "So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers," Paxton stated in the audio. He continued, "Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.” The fundraiser was attended by approximately a dozen conservative donors and lobbyists, with other individuals familiar with the event confirming Paxton's presence.
The remarks have drawn significant attention due to Paxton's consistent public alignment with President Trump. President Trump previously endorsed Paxton in his Republican Senate primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, a race Paxton ultimately won to secure the GOP nomination. Furthermore, President Trump prominently supported Paxton during the recent midterm convention held in Dallas. From the stage, President Trump praised Paxton and urged voters to back him in the upcoming November election, granting Paxton a high-profile presence at the event where he met with donors and supporters.
This leaked private assessment by Paxton presents a stark contrast to his public displays of support and President Trump's own statements regarding the convention's success. President Trump had previously asserted, “The fact that we had such a successful convention really helped Ken Paxton. He was a big part of it.” When asked about the leaked recording on Wednesday, President Trump stated he had not heard about it but nevertheless defended the event, remarking, “I can tell you that the convention was amazing.”
Paxton's campaign has strongly pushed back against the interpretation of the recording. Senior adviser Nick Maddux accused The New York Times of manipulating the audio to create a manufactured controversy. Maddux maintained that the campaign's latest polling data, as reported by the Daily Mail, showed Paxton ahead by three points and indicated an improvement in his numbers since early September. “Ken Paxton is going to win this race,” Maddux asserted, adding that Paxton eagerly anticipates campaigning alongside President Trump when the President visits Texas.
Despite the campaign's reassurances, independent polling suggests a closely contested race between Paxton and his Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico. Several recent surveys have placed the contest within a few percentage points, underscoring the competitive nature of the election. In a show of support, President Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC has committed substantial financial resources to aid Paxton's campaign, with Reuters reporting plans to spend at least $10 million.
The ambiguity in the leaked audio, specifically concerning the original question, means it does not definitively establish that Paxton was directly labeling President Trump himself as a political liability. However, it clearly indicates Paxton's belief that the President Trump-backed convention coincided with a decline in support for him and other Republican candidates.
This episode unfolds within a highly competitive national midterm election environment, where control of both the House and Senate hangs in the balance. The Texas Senate race, traditionally a strong Republican stronghold, has garnered particular scrutiny. With Election Day only weeks away, these privately expressed concerns are now adding another layer of complexity for Ken Paxton as he endeavors to retain a critical Senate seat for the Republican Party. The incident highlights the delicate balance many Republican candidates must strike between aligning with President Trump and navigating their own electoral challenges.
