A recent Emerson College/The Hill poll has revealed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is currently polling ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance in several hypothetical 2028 presidential election scenarios. The survey, conducted from August 16 to August 17 among 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of three percentage points, provides an early look at the Republican Party's potential contenders for the presidency after President Donald Trump's current term.
"Why is the legacy media obsessed with driving a wedge between Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio that does not exist? There is one camp – President Trump’s camp – and the entire administration is working together to execute the President’s agenda." — Anna Kelly, White House spokeswoman
The poll results indicate that Rubio holds a five-point lead over former Vice President Kamala Harris, securing 48% to Harris's 43%. He also maintains the same 48% to 43% advantage against Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). In contrast, Vice President Vance registered a narrower lead against Ocasio-Cortez, polling at 46% to her 44%, and trailed Harris by four percentage points. These findings suggest a notable difference in early public perception between the two high-profile members of President Trump's administration.
Beyond these matchups, the poll explored hypothetical contests against other prominent Democratic figures often discussed as potential 2028 candidates. Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) led Rubio 47% to 44%, while holding a wider 49% to 44% advantage over Vance. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg performed equally well against both Republicans, defeating Rubio and Vance by identical 49% to 44% margins. California Governor Gavin Newsom also showed leads against both Trump administration officials, garnering 48% against Rubio’s 46% and a more substantial 49% against Vance’s 44%.
The release of these poll numbers comes as political observers and party strategists begin to turn their attention toward the Republican Party's future leadership. Vice President Vance has frequently been considered a natural successor to President Trump, particularly after serving as his running mate in the 2024 election. However, Secretary of State Rubio has maintained a highly visible role within the administration, leveraging his position to build a significant national profile on critical foreign policy matters and international relations. His extensive experience in the Senate and his prior presidential campaign have also contributed to his existing recognition among voters.
President Trump has publicly praised both Rubio and Vance, at one point referring to them as a political "dream team." This public commendation highlights the President's appreciation for their contributions to his administration. However, reports earlier this month from The Washington Post suggested that President Trump had privately indicated a preference for Vance, allegedly telling donors, "at the end of the day, we need to elect JD" in 2028. President Trump later pushed back on these suggestions, stating that while he praised Vance, it was "way too early to even be thinking about" endorsing a candidate for 2028. This clarification underscores the President's current stance of remaining neutral in the nascent discussions about future candidacies.
The White House has also actively dismissed any notions of an internal rivalry between Secretary Rubio and Vice President Vance. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly addressed the speculation, telling the Daily Mail, "Why is the legacy media obsessed with driving a wedge between Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio that does not exist? There is one camp – President Trump’s camp – and the entire administration is working together to execute the President’s agenda." This statement aims to project an image of unity within the administration and to quell media narratives suggesting internal competition.
While the 2028 presidential election is still more than two years away, and no major Republican contender has formally announced a campaign, early polls like this one serve as an important barometer for gauging public sentiment and assessing the political viability of potential candidates. These initial findings can influence fundraising efforts, media coverage, and the strategic positioning of individuals within the party. For both Secretary Rubio and Vice President Vance, these results provide valuable feedback as they continue to navigate their roles within the administration and consider their future political ambitions. The landscape remains fluid, but the poll offers a preliminary snapshot of the dynamics at play in the emerging race for the Republican nomination.
