A recent Texas election result, alongside congressional inaction, has prompted a stark warning from a seasoned border reporter regarding future U.S. immigration policy. Bill Melugin, a congressional correspondent for Fox News known for his extensive coverage of border issues, outlined a timeline on X suggesting potential significant shifts in both state and federal border enforcement. His analysis, shared after Tuesday's Texas election, points to January 1 and the year 2029 as critical dates for these anticipated changes.
"Understand the implications of what happened in Texas last night. Gina Hinojosa has called on Gov. Abbott to end state & local cooperation with ICE & she can order that on day one." Bill Melugin, Congressional Correspondent for Fox News
Melugin described the Texas election outcome as the initial blow in a potential two-part challenge to current border security measures. The second challenge, he stated, stems from the Republican-controlled Congress's failure to enact legislation that would codify existing federal border security policies. According to Melugin, the combination of the Texas election result and this legislative gap could create a vulnerability at the border starting January 1, with the potential for further erosion of federal policies post-2028 if the White House changes hands.
Focusing initially on Texas, Melugin highlighted the implications of the election. He specifically mentioned Gina Hinojosa, who has advocated for ending state and local cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Melugin noted that Hinojosa could issue such an order on her first day in office. He further reviewed Hinojosa's legislative history in the Texas Legislature, pointing out her opposition to Senate Bill 4 on two separate occasions. The 2017 version of SB 4 was a "sanctuary cities ban" that mandated Texas law enforcement to cooperate with ICE detainers. In 2023, she also voted against another SB 4, which aimed to criminalize illegal entry into Texas at the state level.
Melugin then enumerated the state-level resources that might no longer be deployed to counter future border surges. His list included the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS), the Texas National Guard, the use of razor wire and water buoys, and Operation Lone Star, the state's comprehensive border enforcement initiative. He asserted, "Should there be another border crisis in coming years, there will likely be no resistance from Texas at the border. No Texas DPS, no TX National Guard, no razor wire or water buoys, and no Operation Lone Star, which Hinojosa called a ‘dog and pony show’ and ‘political theater.'" Melugin characterized Texas as the primary barrier against illegal crossings during what he termed the "Biden era," a period where, in his view, the border was treated as a "sieve."
To underscore the state's historical role in border enforcement, Melugin referenced a specific incident in September 2021 in Del Rio, Texas. He recalled a massing of approximately 15,000 migrants, primarily Haitians, under the international bridge. Melugin contended that the situation was only contained because Texas DPS, acting on Governor Abbott’s orders, physically obstructed further crossings by forming a wall with their cruisers. He contrasted this with what he described as the "Biden Border Patrol," which he claimed was "caught off guard and offered almost no resistance."
Transitioning from state-level concerns to federal policy, Melugin addressed the border security measures implemented by President Donald Trump. He warned that these policies, which he characterized as strong, could be entirely undone at the start of 2029. The rationale, as explained by Melugin, lies in their implementation method. He stated that Republicans in Congress "failed to pass any legislation codifying President Trump’s border security measures." Instead, these measures were largely executed through executive actions.
This reliance on executive authority, Melugin explained, renders each policy vulnerable to immediate reversal by a subsequent administration. He wrote that "if Dems take the White House in 2028, that Dem president could, if he/she wants to, reverse every single Trump border security policy immediately upon taking office because they were all done at the executive level." Such a reversal, Melugin predicted, would likely lead to the Border Patrol reverting to a "passive catch & release policy like we saw under Biden."
Melugin's analysis thus establishes two critical junctures for potential shifts in border enforcement: January 1, marking a possible change in Texas's state-level response, and 2029, signaling a potential overhaul of federal border security policies depending on the outcome of the 2028 presidential election. His warning underscores the interconnectedness of state elections, congressional action, and federal executive authority in shaping the future landscape of U.S. immigration and border control.
