President Donald Trump's recent statements regarding Iran's deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility have intensified speculation about potential military action, drawing a stark forecast from conservative podcaster Tucker Carlson. Carlson recently claimed a nuclear strike on the site could be days away, warning of "World War Three." These remarks arrive as the US midterm campaign concludes, with voter frustration over high energy and commodity prices, stemming from regional conflicts, influencing the political landscape.
"After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final." Tucker Carlson, Conservative Podcaster.
Pickaxe Mountain, officially known as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, is located on the south side of Iran's Natanz nuclear enrichment site on the Central Plateau. Iranian crews have spent six years constructing this underground complex, which now features two pairs of entrances and a recently completed security wall, visible in satellite imagery. Analysts from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies estimated in 2023 that the facility lies between 80 and 100 meters (260-328 feet) below the surface, with digging reportedly continuing since then, potentially reaching even deeper levels. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) dates the start of construction to 2020, the same year Iranian authorities reported an explosion at Natanz, which they attributed to sabotage.
In September, Iran’s then nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, described a "modern, larger and more comprehensive hall in all dimensions in the heart of the mountain near Natanz." He indicated it would be used to produce advanced centrifuges. Experts suggest the project's scale implies Iran could also enrich uranium at the site. Unproven allegations claim some of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium is stored within this facility. Recent satellite images appear to show continued new construction.
Pickaxe Mountain remains one of the few sites linked to Iran’s nuclear program that has not been targeted by US or Israeli strikes. The Pentagon developed the GBU-57 bomb, known for its ability to penetrate at least 60 meters (200 feet) of earth before detonating, specifically for targets such as this. The American military has previously utilized a related weapon, the massive ordnance penetrator, against other Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz and Fordow.
President Trump, in October, had floated a different option, threatening to use the massive ordnance air blast (MOAB) bomb, often called the "mother of all bombs," on the site. This weapon, weighing 21,000 pounds, is too heavy for traditional bombers and would require a slow-moving C-130 cargo plane, a delivery method that would entail significant risk deep within Iranian airspace.
Iran has, in the interim, fortified the site. According to the ISIS think tank, a pair of eastern tunnel portals has been hardened and partially backfilled to obstruct ground vehicles, though not completely sealed. Sam Lair, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, informed Reuters that such strengthened entrances would complicate "targeting with penetrating munitions like bunker busters." ISIS has identified potential targets for an attack, including "the above-ground incoming power supply lines, the location of ventilation shafts [the targets in the attacks in June last year] and the open tunnel entrances."
President Trump has directly addressed the site by name on multiple occasions. On July 21, he told reporters, "We’ll be hitting that area pretty soon, and very heavily." A week later, on July 28, he reiterated, "I know exactly what’s going on at Pickaxe. It’s not a big problem – we took out their nuclear sites, and we’ll have to take out Pickaxe if we don’t make a deal." Speaking at an Iowa campaign rally recently, following a Saturday call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu concerning potential escalation against Tehran, President Trump stated, "And the only reason why I’m not finished with Iran is I want to be nice. I want to try and save all those lives if I can… But at some point we’re going to have to give them the hammer." Earlier this week on Fox News, he framed the choice: “I have a decision to make. Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?”
Amid these presidential remarks, Tucker Carlson, a prominent conservative podcaster with 17.9 million followers on X, offered his own forecast. Carlson posted, "After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final." The post garnered 28.1 million views. Carlson claimed Prime Minister Netanyahu is advocating for such a strike, describing the Israeli leader as "cornered and desperate" after an election where his party lost its majority. Carlson cited no documents, relying instead on an unnamed "informed observer," who reportedly stated, “Bibi calls Trump about it every day.”
Neither the United States nor Israel has confirmed any specific strike plan. The White House has not publicly responded to requests for comment on Carlson's claims. Iran has rejected the premise of such threats. Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei asserted that “no nuclear activity is taking place” at Pickaxe Mountain, labeling US threats as “a fabricated pretext for aggression, destruction, and sabotage.” The heightened rhetoric underscores the volatile geopolitical landscape surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions and the broader Middle East.
