In a stunning electoral outcome, state Representative Steve Toth emerged victorious over incumbent Congressman Dan Crenshaw in the Republican primary for Texas' 2nd Congressional District on Tuesday. Decision Desk HQ called the race in favor of Toth at 12:12 a.m. local time, with Toth holding a commanding lead of 58 percent to Crenshaw's 40 percent, with roughly three-quarters of the ballots counted.
Dan Crenshaw, a 41-year-old decorated former Navy SEAL and a four-term congressman, has been a prominent figure in the Republican Party since he first took office in 2019. Known for his military service, in which he lost his right eye to an IED blast in Afghanistan, Crenshaw has been a vocal supporter of arming Ukraine amidst its conflict with Russia and voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election, breaking with some members of his party.
Steve Toth, 65, a small business owner with a background in construction and business consulting, currently serves in the Texas state legislature. Throughout his campaign, Toth challenged Crenshaw's loyalty to the MAGA coalition, effectively positioning himself as the more ideologically aligned candidate for the Republican base. The district, which underwent recent redistricting, was at the heart of Toth's argument for a representative more in tune with the MAGA movement's direction.
Crenshaw's campaign, despite a significant financial advantage, faced headwinds in the form of withheld endorsements and internal party criticism. Notably, President Donald Trump refrained from endorsing any candidate in the race. Additionally, Texas Senator Ted Cruz threw his support behind Toth in the final week, citing Toth's stance on school choice and fiscal responsibility. This key endorsement followed Crenshaw's opposition to a bipartisan aviation safety bill that Cruz had supported.
Despite the loss, Crenshaw's campaign was well-funded, with the incumbent outraising Toth by over $1.3 million. Furthermore, a pro-Crenshaw super PAC contributed more than $1 million in independent spending in support of his campaign, as reported by the Texas Tribune.
Crenshaw's defeat marks him as the first congressional incumbent to lose a primary in the latest round of contests across Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas. Toth's victory sets him up to face Democrat Shaun Finnie in the general election. Given the solid Republican lean of the 2nd Congressional District, as rated by The Cook Political Report, Toth is viewed as the heavy favorite going into November.
In a statement following his victory, Toth assured his constituents of his commitment, stating, “Congressional District 2 voters want a representative in D.C. who will stand firm in his convictions, fight for his constituents, and follow through on his promises. I won’t let them down.”
