After a protracted ballot-counting process following California's June primary, Decision Desk HQ has projected that Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and political outsider endorsed by President Donald Trump, will advance to the November gubernatorial general election. Hilton is now set to face Xavier Becerra, who previously served as the Biden administration's Health and Human Services Secretary, in a high-stakes ideological contest for the leadership of the nation's most populous state.
"Decision Desk HQ projects Steve Hilton wins the second of two spots in the CA Governor Top-Two Primary #DecisionMade: 8:37 PM EDT" — Decision Desk HQ, Twitter
The path to the general election was not straightforward for Hilton. For several days after the primary, he was locked in a tight race for second place against Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer. The outcome remained uncertain as millions of mail-in and provisional ballots continued to be processed across California's extensive electoral system. California's unique "jungle primary" rules dictate that the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, proceed to the general election.
When Decision Desk HQ made its projection on June 9, 2026, approximately 7.87 million ballots had been counted. Becerra led the field with roughly 27.7 percent of the vote, totaling over 2.17 million ballots. Hilton secured second place with about 25.1 percent, representing approximately 1.975 million votes. Steyer trailed closely behind in third with 22.4 percent, accumulating around 1.76 million votes. Other candidates, including former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, were significantly further back in the field of more than 60 contenders.
California's ballot-counting procedures allow for an extended timeline. Mail ballots postmarked by June 2 and received by June 9 remain eligible, as do provisional ballots. Counties are mandated to complete their canvassing by early July, with the Secretary of State's official certification scheduled for July 10. Despite the initial delays, analysts at Decision Desk HQ had consistently projected Hilton as the likely second-place finisher, with probability models indicating a 93 percent chance before the final call. This confidence was rooted in the demographic profiles of the uncounted ballots, which were largely concentrated in areas favorable to Hilton's support base. While Steyer mounted a late surge, narrowing the margin, he ultimately could not overtake Hilton's lead.
Becerra's ascent to the Democratic standard-bearer position was influenced by a significant development earlier in the race. Former U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell, who had initially led among Democratic candidates, resigned from Congress following multiple accusations of sexual misconduct. This event reshuffled the polling landscape, and Becerra subsequently absorbed a substantial portion of the displaced support, propelling him to finish first in the primary.
Becerra's political career has spanned various levels of California and federal government. He spent years representing California in the U.S. Congress, served as the state's Attorney General, and concluded his federal service with four years leading the Department of Health and Human Services under President Biden. His extensive background positions him as a seasoned figure within the Democratic establishment.
In contrast, Hilton offers a distinctly different profile. A British-born former adviser to Prime Minister David Cameron, he transitioned into an American television commentator before launching his gubernatorial campaign. Hilton's campaign has centered on "kitchen-table issues" directly impacting Californians, such as rising housing costs, escalating electricity bills, the burden of regulatory policies, and the overall unaffordability that has driven residents and businesses out of the state for years. His message resonates with voters frustrated by current economic conditions and governmental policies.
The upcoming November general election presents a formidable challenge for Hilton. California's voter registration statistics heavily favor Democrats, who hold nearly a two-to-one advantage over Republicans statewide. Historically, Republican gubernatorial nominees have faced an uphill battle in the state. However, recent polling data suggests a degree of openness within the electorate. A 2025 survey conducted by pollster David Wolfson indicated that 48 percent of California voters were willing to consider a Republican gubernatorial candidate in 2026. This openness was primarily driven by concerns over affordability, homelessness, and the high cost of living, according to the survey's findings.
The general election will now feature a direct ideological confrontation: Becerra, a key architect and defender of Biden-era policies and a traditional Democratic figure, against Hilton, an insurgent candidate backed by President Trump and advocating for a platform built on addressing the mounting frustrations of California residents.
