White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated Sunday that the U.S. economy has the potential to achieve annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth exceeding 6% in 2026. Hassett shared this projection during an appearance on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” where he discussed the economic conditions under President Donald Trump’s administration. This forecast significantly surpasses the projections from most mainstream economic analysts.
"I think we really could be looking at numbers north of 4, north of 5, north of even 6 because there’s so much capital stock growth right now." — Kevin Hassett, White House National Economic Council Director
During his interview, Hassett expressed strong optimism, saying, "I think we really could be looking at numbers north of 4, north of 5, north of even 6 because there’s so much capital stock growth right now.” He elaborated that a recent surge in capital investment, particularly in sectors such as artificial intelligence and new factory construction, is poised to rapidly accelerate economic growth throughout the remainder of 2026. Hassett emphasized the transformative potential of these investments, noting, "Once we turn those factories on, you’re going to see really growth unlike anything we have seen before.” He highlighted investment trends across manufacturing and technology sectors as key drivers for this anticipated expansion.
The U.S. economy expanded by 2% during the first quarter of 2026, according to recently released government economic data. This figure, while exceeding growth rates recorded by other members of the Group of Seven (G7) industrialized nations, remains considerably below the 6% annual growth projection outlined by Hassett. Economic historians and analysts point out that the U.S. has rarely achieved annual GDP growth above 6% in modern history, with such levels typically observed only during major economic rebounds or exceptional periods of expansion. For instance, the last time the U.S. economy approached this level was in 2021, when post-pandemic recovery efforts pushed annual GDP growth to approximately 5.7%. Prior to that, the U.S. had not exceeded 6% annual GDP growth since 1984, during a significant economic expansion phase under the Reagan administration.
To achieve an annual growth rate exceeding 6% for 2026, analysts suggest the economy would likely need to expand at rates approaching roughly 7.5% during the remaining three quarters of the year. Hassett offered an explanation for the lower first-quarter growth figures, arguing that they were partially influenced by businesses importing record amounts of capital goods and equipment. These imports, he contended, are directly tied to ongoing factory construction projects and broader investment expansion, indicating a build-up phase rather than a slowdown. He specifically credited President Donald Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" with helping to drive this increased capital spending, noting that the act extended many provisions originally included in President Trump’s 2017 tax reform legislation, as reported by the New York Post.
In contrast to Hassett's bold prediction, most mainstream economic forecasts currently project U.S. GDP growth in 2026 to fall between approximately 2.2% and 2.6%. These figures are closer to the average growth levels observed in recent years. Critics of the more optimistic outlook frequently cite several factors contributing to economic risks. These include ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs, persistent global trade tensions, and rising oil prices, which are partly linked to instability involving the Strait of Hormuz. These elements, they argue, continue to create significant economic risks for both businesses and consumers. Additionally, inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, reached 3.5% for the year ending in March. This figure remains above the Federal Reserve’s longstanding 2% target, adding another layer of complexity to the economic outlook. The divergence between the White House's optimistic forecast and the more cautious mainstream projections underscores the varied interpretations of current economic indicators and future trends.
